Trump Is Going To Win In 2020

No recount needed

Adrian Eaton

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2 weeks from today, news cycles will be swirling with the latest results on the winner. All eyes on the next President of the United States.

My unwelcome (and frankly, unqualified) forecast is that Donald Trump will comfortably win the election.

To be perfectly clear: I’m not happy about this prediction.

But, with most popular polls pushing the story of Biden’s enormous lead, I fear a complacency that will heavily dent the total voter turnout.

People will think they don’t need to go out and vote because someone else will. As happened in 2016.

It’s weird to me that these polls usually come from left-leaning sources like the WSJ, NBC, CNN, NYT, and so on. As of today, three of those four journals give Biden an 11 point lead, while the fourth gives him “only” a 9 point lead.

In trying to stoke optimism for Biden, they’re inadvertently costing him votes.

If I’m constantly reassured that the Democrats have a comfortable-enough lead, then I’m comfortable that enough other people are voting for them.

Photo by Coen Staal on Unsplash

These pollsters have been forced to address the awkward elephant in the room. And they’ve all made pretty much the same argument…

“Look, we know we got it wrong in 2016, but it’s different this time!”

I’m not particularly convinced whenever I hear this.

If you think about polls less abstractly, in terms of what they really are:

Somebody calls your home phone (do you still have a landline?) and says, “Hello, I’m a pollster with [CNN / NBC / NYTimes / …] do you have a few minutes to answer some questions about the upcoming election?”

The sum total of people who say “Yes” to that question, then stick around to answer a series of follow-up questions — that’s what a poll result shows us.

If you’re a Trump supporter who’s sick of seeing the liberal media smear our indisputably most orange…

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